A Bayesian spatiotemporal approach to modelling arboviral diseases in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of disease prevalence clusters of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) virus and how socio-economic and climatic variables simultaneously influence the risk and rate of occurrence of infection in Mexico. METHODS: To determine the spatiotemporal clustering and the effect of climatic and socio-economic covariates on the rate of occurrence of disease and risk in Mexico, we applied correlation methods, seasonal and trend decomposition using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing, hotspot analysis and conditional autoregressive Bayesian models. RESULTS: We found cases of the disease are decreasing and a significant association between DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases and climatic and socio-economic variables. An increment of cases was identified in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. Climatic and socio-economic covariates were significantly associated with the rate of occurrence and risk of the three arboviral disease cases. CONCLUSION: The association of climatic and socio-economic factors is predominant in the northeastern, central west and southeastern regions of Mexico. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed an increased risk in several states in these regions and need urgent attention to allocate public health resources to the most vulnerable regions in Mexico.

Physician-level determinants of HCV screening during pregnancy in a U.S. sample.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to assess the association between select determinants and HCV screening guideline adherence among physicians who provide prenatal care. RESEARCH QUESTION: What factors may act as determinants of guideline adherence to HCV screening among physicians who provide prenatal care? METHODS: We surveyed a national sample of physicians who provided prenatal care in 2021. The survey included questions from the Clinician Guideline Determinant (CGD) questionnaire, demographic characteristics, and medical practice characteristics. We estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using semi-Bayesian logistic regression for the association between determinants and guideline adherence. RESULTS: Participants included 224 physicians in the United States who reported providing prenatal care. Most physicians practiced in private practice (65%) and the majority were members of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG; 91%). Less than half (43%; 95% CI: 36%-49%) of physicians reported regular use of the HCV screening guideline. Physicians who reported general knowledge about HCV (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 3.1-30) or endorsed agreement with ease of implementation (OR = 8.0, 95% CI 2.7-25) had higher odds of adherence to the HCV screening guideline. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that less than half of practicing prenatal care physicians adhere to HCV screening guidelines for pregnant patients. Our results may be useful as a preliminary screening of select determinants of guideline use for further investigation.

Moderation effects of serotype on dengue severity across pregnancy status in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy increases a woman's risk of severe dengue. To the best of our knowledge, the moderation effect of the dengue serotype among pregnant women has not been studied in Mexico. This study explores how pregnancy interacted with the dengue serotype from 2012 to 2020 in Mexico. METHOD: Information from 2469 notifying health units in Mexican municipalities was used for this cross-sectional analysis. Multiple logistic regression with interaction effects was chosen as the final model and sensitivity analysis was done to assess potential exposure misclassification of pregnancy status. RESULTS: Pregnant women were found to have higher odds of severe dengue [1.50 (95% CI 1.41, 1.59)]. The odds of dengue severity varied for pregnant women with DENV-1 [1.45, (95% CI 1.21, 1.74)], DENV-2 [1.33, (95% CI 1.18, 1.53)] and DENV-4 [3.78, (95% CI 1.14, 12.59)]. While the odds of severe dengue were generally higher for pregnant women compared with non-pregnant women with DENV-1 and DENV-2, the odds of disease severity were much higher for those infected with the DENV-4 serotype. CONCLUSION: The effect of pregnancy on severe dengue is moderated by the dengue serotype. Future studies on genetic diversification may potentially elucidate this serotype-specific effect among pregnant women in Mexico.

Sex Difference in OA: Should We Blame Estrogen?

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of chronic pain and disability, not only in the United States but also worldwide. The burden of OA is higher in women than in men. Estrogen as a possible explanation for observed sex differences in OA has not been definitively established. The purpose of this review was to summarize the results from studies of estrogen, estrogen depletion and treatment, and their impact on knee, hip, hand, and spine OA. We conducted a targeted review of the literature using PubMed. Although several studies show that hormone replacement therapy has the potential to be protective of OA for some joints, there are studies that showed no protective effect or even adverse effect. Taken together, the evidence for the protective effect of estrogen therapy depends on OA joint, OA outcome, and study design. Although this area has been studied for decades, more exclusively since the 1990s, there is a lack of high-quality experimental research in this topic. The lack of definitive conclusion on whether estrogen can play a role in the development in OA of either the knee, hip, spine, or hand is often in part due to the noncomparability of studies existing within the literature. Differences in diagnostic criteria, imaging modalities, populations studied, study designs, and outcome measures, as well as random error, have all contributed to inconclusive evidence. Future research on the role of estrogen in OA is needed, particularly as global demographic shifts in increasing overweight/obesity prevalence and ageing populations may contribute to widening OA-related health inequalities.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico.

Background: The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico. Methods: We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters. Results: DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence. Conclusions: Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.

Country-Level Governance Indicators as Predictors of COVID-19 Morbidity, Mortality, and Vaccination Coverage: An Exploratory Global Analysis.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect all countries across the globe, this study seeks to investigate the relationship between nations' governance, COVID-19 national data, and nation-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage. National-level governance indicators (corruption index, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence/terrorism), officially reported COVID-19 national data (cases, death, and tests per one million population), and COVID-19 vaccination coverage was considered for this study to predict COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Results indicate a strong relationship between nations' governance and officially reported COVID-19 data. Countries were grouped into three clusters using only the governance data: politically stable countries, average countries or "less corrupt countries," and corrupt countries or "more corrupt countries." The clusters were then tested for significant differences in reporting various aspects of the COVID-19 data. According to multinomial regression, countries in the cluster of politically stable nations reported significantly more deaths, tests per one million, total cases per one million, and higher vaccination coverage compared with nations both in the clusters of corrupt countries and average countries. The countries in the cluster of average nations reported more tests per one million and higher vaccination coverage than countries in the cluster of corrupt nations. Countries included in the corrupt cluster reported a lower death rate and morbidity, particularly compared with the politically stable nations cluster, a trend that can be attributed to poor governance and inaccurate COVID-19 data reporting. The epidemic evaluation indices of the COVID-19 cases demonstrate that the pandemic is still evolving on a global level.

Trends in Diet Quality by Race/Ethnicity among Adults in the United States for 2011-2018.

This study aimed to investigate time trends in diet quality and the consumption of major food groups and nutrients by race/ethnicity among adults in the United States. Dietary data from 19,192 adults aged ≥ 20 years from four National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) cycles (2011-2018) were included. The Healthy Eating Index (HEI) 2015 scores (range: 0-100; higher scores indicate better diet quality) and dietary consumption of food groups and nutrients were estimated for each cycle. Linear regression was used to test trends. For the overall population, the estimated overall HEI-2015 scores significantly decreased (p for trend = 0.011). However, decreases were observed in the estimated consumption of added sugars and total carbohydrates, while the estimated consumption of soy products and polyunsaturated fatty acids was significantly increased. A significant decrease in overall HEI-2015 score was observed in the non-Hispanic white group, but not in other racial/ethnic groups. Decreases in added sugar intake were found in the non-Hispanic black and Hispanic groups; sodium intake significantly decreased in the non-Hispanic Asian group. From 2011 to 2018, there was a decrease in estimated overall diet quality in US adults; however, there were improvements in certain nutrients and dietary components. Nevertheless, disparities in diet quality exist among racial/ethnic groups.

The human toll and humanitarian crisis of the Russia-Ukraine war: the first 162 days.

BACKGROUND: We examined the human toll and subsequent humanitarian crisis resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. METHOD: We extracted and analysed data resulting from Russian military attacks on Ukrainians between 24 February and 4 August 2022. The data tracked direct deaths and injuries, damage to healthcare infrastructure and the impact on health, the destruction of residences, infrastructure, communication systems, and utility services - all of which disrupted the lives of Ukrainians. RESULTS: As of 4 August 2022, 5552 civilians were killed outright and 8513 injured in Ukraine as a result of Russian attacks. Local officials estimate as many as 24 328 people were also killed in mass atrocities, with Mariupol being the largest (n=22 000) such example. Aside from wide swaths of homes, schools, roads, and bridges destroyed, hospitals and health facilities from 21 cities across Ukraine came under attack. The disruption to water, gas, electricity, and internet services also extended to affect supplies of medications and other supplies owing to destroyed facilities or production that ceased due to the war. The data also show that Ukraine saw an increase in cases of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and Coronavirus (COVID-19). CONCLUSIONS: The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War not only resulted in deaths and injuries but also impacted the lives and safety of Ukrainians through destruction of healthcare facilities and disrupted delivery of healthcare and supplies. The war is an ongoing humanitarian crisis given the continuing destruction of infrastructure and services that directly impact the well-being of human lives. The devastation, trauma and human cost of war will impact generations of Ukrainians to come.

Community acceptability of dengue fever surveillance using unmanned aerial vehicles: A cross-sectional study in Malaysia, Mexico, and Turkey.

Surveillance is a critical component of any dengue prevention and control program. There is an increasing effort to use drones in mosquito control surveillance. Due to the novelty of drones, data are scarce on the impact and acceptance of their use in the communities to collect health-related data. The use of drones raises concerns about the protection of human privacy. Here, we show how willingness to be trained and acceptance of drone use in tech-savvy communities can help further discussions in mosquito surveillance. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Malaysia, Mexico, and Turkey to assess knowledge of diseases caused by Aedes mosquitoes, perceptions about drone use for data collection, and acceptance of drones for Aedes mosquito surveillance around homes. Compared with people living in Turkey, Mexicans had 14.3 (p < 0.0001) times higher odds and Malaysians had 4.0 (p = 0.7030) times the odds of being willing to download a mosquito surveillance app. Compared to urban dwellers, rural dwellers had 1.56 times the odds of being willing to be trained. There is widespread community support for drone use in mosquito surveillance and this community buy-in suggests a potential for success in mosquito surveillance using drones. A successful surveillance and community engagement system may be used to monitor a variety of mosquito spp. Future research should include qualitative interview data to add context to these findings.

Sleep Duration, Chronotype, and Insomnia and the Risk of Lung Cancer: United Kingdom Biobank Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Relationships between sleep duration, chronotype, insomnia, and lung cancer risk have not been comprehensively examined. Interrelations between sleep traits on the risk of lung cancer have not been assessed. We aimed to examine sleep traits with lung cancer risk. METHODS: Participants were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and followed through November 30, 2020. We included 382,966 participants (3,664 incident lung cancer) in analysis. Cox proportional hazards models estimated HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between sleep duration, chronotype, and insomnia symptoms and lung cancer risk. Joint effects analyses were examined between sleep duration and three traits (chronotype, insomnia, and daytime napping). Nonlinear associations between sleep duration and lung cancer risk were assessed in restricted cubic spline analysis. RESULTS: Longer sleep (>8 hours) was positively associated with lung cancer risk compared with normal sleep duration (7-8 hours; HR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.36). Frequent insomnia symptoms increased the risk of lung cancer compared with never/rarely experiencing symptoms (HR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.28). Joint effects between sleep duration and chronotype, and sleep duration and insomnia symptoms were observed. In analysis excluding participants reporting shift work at baseline, evening chronotypes ("slight," "definite") were at a greater risk of lung cancer compared with definite morning chronotype (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06-1.28 and HR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.21-1.54, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Sleep traits such as long sleep duration, frequent insomnia symptoms, and definite evening chronotype may be risk factors for lung cancer. Joint effects should be further investigated. IMPACT: Sleep traits may be risk factors of lung cancer.

1-year trajectories of patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty: Patient reported outcomes and resource needs according to education level.

BACKGROUND: Objectives were first to evaluate by education level one-year trajectories of pain, function and general health, as well as hospital resource and medication needs in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA); and second, to evaluate whether outcome differences are related to existing baseline differences in health and disease severity. METHODS: We included all primary THAs from a public hospital-based prospective arthroplasty registry, performed in a high-income country 2010 to 2017. Education was classified in three levels: ≤8years of schooling (low), 9-12years (medium), and ≥13years (high). Pain and function prior to and one-year after surgery were assessed with the Western Ontario McMaster Universities score (WOMAC) and general health with the 12-item short-form health survey (SF-12). RESULTS: Overall 963 patients were included, 340 (35.3%) with low, 306 (31.8%) with medium, and 317 (32.9%) with high education. With increasing educational level preoperative scores for pain, function and SF-12 mental health component increased. One year after surgery improvement was observed in all education categories for WOMAC pain and function, SF-12 mental and physical component. However, absolute postoperative scores remained lower in all four domains for the low education group. After adjustment for baseline characteristics differences were much attenuated and no longer significant. There was also greater resource need in low educated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The inferior absolute results one year after surgery in less educated patients were largely due to older age, worse preoperative health and greater symptom severity calling for greater attention to timely and equal management, for more targeted perioperative care and increased support for the lower education group.

The Disproportionate Impact of COVID-19 among Undocumented Immigrants and Racial Minorities in the US.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has had an unprecedented effect, especially among under-resourced minority communities. Surveillance of those at high risk is critical for preventing and controlling the pandemic. We must better understand the relationships between COVID-19-related cases or deaths and characteristics in our most vulnerable population that put them at risk to target COVID-19 prevention and management efforts. Population characteristics strongly related to United States (US) county-level data on COVID-19 cases and deaths during all stages of the pandemic were identified from the onset of the epidemic and included county-level socio-demographic and comorbidities data, as well as daily meteorological modeled observation data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the NARR high spatial resolution model to assess the environment. Advanced machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify outbreaks (geographic clusters of COVID-19) and included spatiotemporal risk factors and COVID-19 vaccination efforts, especially among vulnerable and underserved communities. COVID-19 outcomes were found to be negatively associated with the number of people vaccinated and positively associated with age, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and the minority population. There was also a strong positive correlation between unauthorized immigrants and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Meteorological variables were also investigated, but correlations with COVID-19 were relatively weak. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact across the US population among vulnerable and minority communities. Findings also emphasize the importance of vaccinations and tailored public health initiatives (e.g., mask mandates, vaccination) to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and the number of COVID-19 related deaths across all populations.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Emerging Variants: Evidence from Six Countries.

As the world tries to cope with the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and emerging variants of the virus, COVID-19 vaccination has become an even more critical tool toward normalcy. The effectiveness of the vaccination program and specifically vaccine uptake and coverage, however, is a function of an individual's knowledge and individual opinion about the disease and available vaccines. This study investigated the knowledge, attitudes, and resulting community practice(s) associated with the new COVID-19 variants and vaccines in Bangladesh, Colombia, India, Malaysia, Zimbabwe, and the USA. A cross-sectional web-based Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) survey was administered to respondents living in six different countries using a structured and multi-item questionnaire. Survey questions were translated into English, Spanish, and Malay to accommodate the local language in each country. Associations between KAP and a range of explanatory variables were assessed using univariate and multiple logistic regression. A total of 781 responses were included in the final analysis. The Knowledge score mean was 24 (out of 46), Attitude score 28.9 (out of 55), and Practice score 7.3 (out of 11). Almost 65% of the respondents reported being knowledgeable about COVID-19 variants and vaccination, 55% reported a positive attitude toward available COVID-19 vaccines, and 85% reported engaging in practices that supported COVID-19 vaccination. From the multiple logistic models, we found post-graduate education (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.23-2.74) and an age range 45-54 years (AOR = 5.81, 95% CI: 2.30-14.69) to be significantly associated with reported COVID-19 knowledge. In addition, positive Attitude scores were associated with respondents living in Zimbabwe (AOR = 4.49, 95% CI: 2.04-9.90) and positive Practice scores were found to be associated with people from India (AOR = 3.68, 95% CI: 1.15-11.74) and high school education (AOR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.07-4.38). This study contributes to the identification of socio-demographic factors associated with poor knowledge, attitudes, and practices relating to COVID-19 variants and vaccines. It presents an opportunity for collaboration with diverse communities to address COVID-19 misinformation and common sources of vaccine hesitancy (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, and practices).

Increases in social support co-occur with decreases in depressive symptoms and substance use problems among adults in permanent supportive housing: an 18-month longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Social support is a well-known protective factor against depressive symptoms and substance use problems, but very few studies have examined its protective effects among residents of permanent supportive housing (PSH), a housing program for people with a history of chronic homelessness. We utilized unconditional latent growth curve models (LGCMs) and parallel process growth models to describe univariate trajectories of social support, depressive symptoms, and substance use problems and to examine their longitudinal associations in a large sample of adults residing in PSH. METHODS: Participants were 653 adult PSH residents in North Texas (56% female; 57% Black; mean age: 51 years) who participated in a monthly health coaching program from 2014 to 2017. Their health behaviors were assessed at baseline and tracked every six months at three follow-up visits. RESULTS: Unconditional LGCMs indicated that over time, social support increased, whereas depressive symptoms and substance use problems decreased. However, their rates of change slowed over time. Further, in parallel process growth models, we found that at baseline, individuals with greater social support tended to have less severe depressive symptoms and substance use problems (coefficients: - 0.67, p < 0.01; - 0.52, p < 0.01, respectively). Individuals with a faster increase in social support tended to have steeper rates of reduction in both depressive symptoms (coefficient: - 0.99, p < 0.01) and substance use problems (coefficient: - 0.98, p < 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that plausibly, increases in social support, though slowing over time, still positively impact depressive symptoms and substance use problems among PSH residents. Future PSH programs could emphasize social support as an early component as it may contribute to clients' overall health.

Knee Osteoarthritis, Potential Mediators, and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), knee pain, and radiographic knee OA to All-cause mortality and to identify mediators in the causal pathway. METHODS: Participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were divided into 4 groups: 1) symptomatic knee OA (i.e., both radiographic knee OA [Kellgren/Lawrence grade ≥2] and knee pain); 2) knee pain only; 3) radiographic knee OA only; and 4) neither radiographic knee OA nor knee pain. We examined the relation of knee OA status to All-cause mortality using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and assessed the extent to which the association was mediated by disability, physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores for quality of life (QoL), and use of oral pain-relief medications (i.e., nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and opioids). RESULTS: Among 4,796 participants, 282 died over the 96-month follow-up period. Compared with those with neither radiographic knee OA nor knee pain, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality were 2.2 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.6-3.1) for symptomatic knee OA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.6-1.4) for knee pain only, and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4-2.9) for radiographic knee OA only, respectively. Indirect effects (HRs) of symptomatic knee OA on mortality via disability and PCS of QoL were 1.1 (95% CI 1.0-1.4) and 1.2 (95% CI 1.0-1.4), respectively. No apparent mediation effect was observed through either MCS of QoL or oral pain-relief medications use. CONCLUSION: Participants with either symptomatic or radiographic knee OA were at an increased risk of All-cause mortality. Increased risk of mortality from symptomatic knee OA was partially mediated through its effect on disability and PCS of QoL.

Modern treatment of tibial shaft fractures: Is there a role today for closed treatment?

PURPOSE: The decision to attempt closed treatment on tibial shaft fractures can be challenging. At our institution, we attempt treatment of nearly all closed, isolated tibial shaft fractures. The purpose of this study was to report the results of 10 years of experience to develop a tool to identify patients for whom non-operative treatment of tibial shaft fractures may be a viable option METHOD: This was a retrospective review of patients with tibial shaft fracture seen at a level 1 trauma center over 10 years. Patients with closed, isolated injuries underwent sedation, closed reduction, long-leg casting, and outpatient follow-up. Patients were converted to surgery for inability to obtain or maintain acceptable alignment or patient intolerance. Radiographic characteristics and patient demographics were extracted. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model to predict which patient and injury characteristics determined success of nonoperative treatment. RESULTS: 334 patients were identified with isolated, closed tibial shaft fractures, who were reduced and treated in a long leg cast. 234 patients (70%) converted to surgical treatment due to inability to maintain alignment, patient intolerance, and nonunion. In a regression model, coronal/sagittal translation, sagittal angulation, fracture morphology, and smoking status were shown to be significant predictors of success of nonoperative treatment (p < 0.05). We developed a Tibial Operative Outcome Likelihood (TOOL) score designed to help predict success or failure of closed treatment. The TOOL score can be used to identify a subsegment of patients with injuries amenable to closed treatment (38% of injuries) with a nonoperative success rate over 60%. CONCLUSION: Non-operative treatment of tibial shaft fractures is feasible, although there is a relatively high conversion rate to operative treatment. However, it is possible to use injury characteristics to identify a cohort of patients with a higher chance of success with closed treatment, which is potentially useful in a resource-constrained setting or for patients who wish to avoid surgery. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level 3.

The impact of COVID-19 on globalization.

Globalization has altered the way we live and earn a livelihood. Consequently, trade and travel have been recognized as significant determinants of the spread of disease. Additionally, the rise in urbanization and the closer integration of the world economy have facilitated global interconnectedness. Therefore, globalization has emerged as an essential mechanism of disease transmission. This paper aims to examine the potential impact of COVID-19 on globalization and global health in terms of mobility, trade, travel, and countries most impacted. The effect of globalization were operationalized in terms of mobility, economy, and healthcare systems. The mobility of individuals and its magnitude was assessed using airline and seaport trade data and travel information. The economic impact was measured based on the workforce, event cancellations, food and agriculture, academic institutions, and supply chain. The healthcare capacity was assessed by considering healthcare system indicators and preparedness of countries. Utilizing a technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), we calculated a pandemic vulnerability index (PVI) by creating a quantitative measure of the potential global health. The pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on the world economy, healthcare, and globalization through travel, events cancellation, employment workforce, food chain, academia, and healthcare capacity. Based on PVI results, certain countries were more vulnerable than others. In Africa, more vulnerable countries included South Africa and Egypt; in Europe, they were Russia, Germany, and Italy; in Asia and Oceania, they were India, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey; and for the Americas, they were Brazil, USA, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. The impact on mobility, economy, and healthcare systems has only started to manifest. The findings of this study may help in the planning and implementation of strategies at the country level to help ease this emerging burden.

Risk of venous thromboembolism in knee, hip and hand osteoarthritis: a general population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Osteoarthritis is a leading cause of immobility and joint replacement, two strong risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We aimed to examine the relation of knee, hip and hand osteoarthritis to the risk of VTE and investigate joint replacement as a potential mediator. METHODS: We conducted three cohort studies using data from The Health Improvement Network. Up to five individuals without osteoarthritis were matched to each case of incident knee (n=20 696), hip (n=10 411) or hand (n=6329) osteoarthritis by age, sex, entry time and body mass index. We examined the relation of osteoarthritis to VTE (pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis) using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: VTE developed in 327 individuals with knee osteoarthritis and 951 individuals without osteoarthritis (2.7 vs 2.0 per 1000 person-years), with multivariable-adjusted HR being 1.38 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.56). The indirect effect (HR) of knee osteoarthritis on VTE through knee replacement was 1.07 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.15), explaining 24.8% of its total effect on VTE. Risk of VTE was higher in hip osteoarthritis than non-osteoarthritis (3.3 vs 1.8 per 1000 person-years; multivariable-adjusted HR=1.83, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.13). The indirect effect through hip replacement yielded an HR of 1.14 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.25), explaining 28.1% of the total effect. No statistically significant difference in VTE risk was observed between hand osteoarthritis and non-osteoarthritis (1.5 vs 1.6 per 1000 person-years; multivariable-adjusted HR=0.88, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.16). CONCLUSION: Our large population-based cohort study provides the first evidence that knee or hip osteoarthritis, but not hand osteoarthritis, was associated with an increased risk of VTE, and such an association was partially mediated through knee or hip replacement.

Improvement in mental health following total hip arthroplasty: the role of pain and function.

BACKGROUND: Mental health has been shown to improve after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Little is known about the role of pain and function in this context. We assessed whether change in mental health was associated with improvement in pain and function 1 year post-surgery. METHODS: This prospective study included patients enrolled in a THA registry from 2010 to 2014. We examined the mental component score (MCS) before and 1 year post-surgery, and 1-year change, in association with Western Ontario McMaster Universities (WOMAC) pain and function scores. All scores were normalized, ranging from 0 to 100 (larger score indicating better outcome). Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Our study included 610 participants, of which 53% were women. Descriptive statistics are as follows: the average (SD) for age (years) was 68.5 (11.8), and for BMI was 26.9 (4.9). In addition, the MCS average (SD) at baseline was 44.7 (11.2), and at 1-year after THA was 47.5 (10.5). The average change from baseline to 1-year post-THA in MCS was 2.8 (95% CI: 1.9, 3.6), for an effect size of 0.26. As for the WOMAC pain score, the average change from baseline to 1-year post-THA was 44.2 (95%CI: 42.4, 46.0), for an effect size of 2.5. The equivalent change in WOMAC function was 38.1 (95% CI: 36.2, 40.0), for an effect size of 2.0. Results from multivariable analysis controlling for covariates showed that an improvement of 10 points in the 1-year change in pain score resulted in a 0.78 point (95%: CI 0.40, 1.26) increase in the 1-year change in MCS, whereas a 10-point improvement in the 1-year change in function was associated with a 0.94 point (95% CI: 0.56, 1.32) increase. CONCLUSIONS: Mental health significantly improved from baseline to 1-year post-THA. Greater improvement in pain and function was associated with greater improvement in mental health 1 year post-THA.